John Cope, Independent Strategic Advisor, & Senior Counsel (Education & Skills), PLMR. Former Executive Director, UCAS; & former Non Exec Director, IfATE.

Shortly before leaving UCAS, I oversaw the publication last year of a fantastic series of analyses called Journey to a Million. This considered the demographic realities of applications to university, college, and apprenticeships – and what it meant for the system and our economy. Based on UCAS data (partial in places, especially when it comes to further education and apprenticeships), robust modelling and some careful assumptions around participation rates, we put our necks on the line and projected by 2030, UCAS would be processing a million applications, compared to around 750,000 currently. We also made clear that in all likelihood there is a plateau and potential drop in higher education numbers after 2030.

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