• Labour now leads in the East of England on 24%, up from 21% in July
• Reform falls to third in the region on 20%, down from 26% in July
• The Conservatives have edged up to 22%, from 20% in July
• Labour on course for a comfortable national majority of 56 seats

A new MRP poll has revealed a Burnham bounce in the East of England with Labour overtaking Reform UK to become the most popular party in the region for the first time this year.

The poll was carried out as Labour gathered for its annual party conference, where Andy Burnham delivered his first conference speech as Prime Minister.

The research, conducted by Ipswich based communications agency PLMR East of England in partnership with Electoral Calculus, provides a seat by seat breakdown of voting intentions if a General Election was held tomorrow.

East of England

Labour is polling at 24% in the East of England, a rise from 21% in July, whilst Reform has seen its support fall to 20% having been at 26% in July. Over the same period, the Conservatives have edged up to 22% from 20%. Restore Britain has also continued to grow, rising to 10% from 6%, which suggests it is still drawing support away from Reform.

It is a remarkable turnaround from earlier in the year, when Reform looked set to dominate the region. In January, the party was polling at 34% in the East of England and was on course to win almost every seat, with Labour not expected to win a single constituency. By April, the poll showed Reform was predicted to win 33 of the 43 seats across Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk and Cambridgeshire. That figure has now fallen to 18 seats.

At the same time, Labour has seen its support grow and is now predicted to win 10 seats in the latest poll, compared to the five it was expected to win in the July poll.

Suffolk, Norfolk, Essex and Cambridgeshire

If an election were held tomorrow, the poll shows in Suffolk the Conservatives would win 4 seats, including Waveney Valley which straddles the Norfolk and Suffolk border, followed by Labour with 3 seats in Ipswich, Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket. Reform would win just 1 seat in Lowestoft, down from 4 in July.

In Norfolk, Reform would win 4 seats, followed by Labour with 3, including both Norwich seats, and the Conservatives with 2. Restore Britain would win Great Yarmouth.

In Essex, Reform would win 10 of the county’s 18 seats, while the Conservatives would win 4. Labour would win 3 seats in Colchester, Thurrock, and Southend East and Rochford, with the Liberal Democrats holding Chelmsford.

In Cambridgeshire, Reform would win 3 seats, followed by the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats with 2 each, and Labour holding Cambridge.

A Labour majority

At a national level, if an election were held tomorrow, the poll reveals Labour is now on 28% of the vote, ahead of Reform on 21% and the Conservatives on 18%. On these figures, Labour would win 353 seats, giving it a comfortable majority of 56. The Conservatives would form the official opposition with 90 seats, with Reform falling to third on 81 seats and the Liberal Democrats close behind on 70.

It marks a dramatic turnaround from the start of the year. In January, PLMR’s polling showed Reform on 31% nationally and on course to form a majority government with 335 seats. By April this had fallen to 188 seats, and in July to 127 seats, leaving the country heading for a hung Parliament. Over the same period, Labour’s share of the vote has risen from 17% to 28%.

Quotes and insight

Commenting on the latest findings, Tim Miller, Managing Director of PLMR East of England, said: “This poll shows a clear Burnham bounce, both here in the East of England and across the country. A new leader and a positive party conference have clearly helped, with the Prime Minister setting out a direction that appears to be winning back voters who had drifted to other parties.

“For Reform, the momentum it built last year has stalled and it is now being squeezed from both sides, with Restore Britain taking votes on the right and Labour and the Conservatives recovering ground. However, its support is still concentrated in parts of Essex and Norfolk, so it would be wrong to write the party off in this region.

“Despite the speculation, according to the Prime Minister the next election is a few years away and a lot can change. The upcoming Budget will be a real test of whether this bounce can last. Voters are giving Labour a second hearing, but they will want to see that turn into real improvements to the cost of living and the public services they rely on.”

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “Our figures show a remarkable reversal of fortune for Labour under Andy Burnham, with the party now predicted to win 353 seats, an outright majority. Burnham has used clear left-of-centre rhetoric to win back those voters who drifted to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens when Keir Starmer was leader, rather than chasing Reform voters.

“The right, by contrast, remains split. Restore Britain would win very few seats, but it is cutting into Reform’s vote and leaving it with fewer than 100 seats and even less than the Conservatives. A pact between the Conservatives and Reform would give them just 171 seats, not even half of Labour’s 353. Under the first-past-the-post system the side that unites first wins and Andy Burnham clearly understands that and is acting on it.”