PLMR’s latest polling with Electoral Calculus shows a continuing three-way jostle for the top spot, as Reform enjoy a narrow lead (25%) over Labour and the Conservatives who are both on 23%. If a General Election were held tomorrow, it is increasingly plausible that Nigel Farage could be heading to Number 10, propped up by a slimmed down Conservative Party.
Following a tumultuous quarter in international relations, we also took the temperature of the public around their interpretation of who is best to represent the UK on the international stage.
These findings point to a pervasive crisis of political trust. A full third of respondents say they do not trust any major party leader to represent the UK internationally and a further quarter remain unsure where to place their faith. Of the leaders who do command support, Sir Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage are tied at 16% each, while Kemi Badenoch trails at 5%.
The Prime Minister has gained plenty of plaudits in media and diplomatic circles for his handling of Donald Trump and his leadership in rallying Europe to support Ukraine. However, this poll shows that that has yet to translate into meaningful support at the polls.
Why? One suggestion is that there is a clear correlation between economic expectations and trust in individual leaders to be effective overseas. People who believe their finances are on the upswing show a marked preference for Starmer, whereas those who anticipate worsening finances are likelier to trust Farage. For any party hoping to win over undecided voters, the message is clear – improving household financial prospects and communicating that plan effectively will be vital in the run-up to the next election.
At the same time, success on the world stage does not necessarily yield gains at home. The Prime Minister cannot rely on foreign achievements alone if domestic voters remain unconvinced about the economic trajectory. Winning the trust of the British public will require clear, consistent messaging and tangible progress on bread-and-butter issues such as cost of living, the NHS and employment.
Against this backdrop, all three parties vying for the top spot must prepare for a political environment that is more fluid than ever before.
As things stand, none can rely on an outright majority and building constructive coalitions or alliances will become a practical necessity. Those who can show decisive leadership on the domestic front stand the best chance of cutting through the noise, rebuilding voter confidence and securing the path to Number 10.
Of course, we are a long way from a General Election, but the Parties will be put through their paces next month at the local elections – where voters will be less interested in what goes on behind the scenes in Washington and Kiev, and more interested in who will fill potholes, collect their rubbish and fix streetlights. In other words, voters want to see politicians focus on micro priorities that impact their day-to-day lives.
57%
can't name a party leader they trust
16%
trust in Starmer and Farage respectively
5.4%
voters trust Badenoch
227
Reform seats projected
180
Labour seats projected
30
SNP seats projected
Q1: If a general election was called tomorrow, how likely would you be to vote?
Q2: If a general election was called tomorrow, how would you vote?
Q3: Which of the following political leaders do you trust most to represent the UK effectively on the international stage?
As the three-horse race for Number 10 continues, it is striking that the majority of the public either don’t know which of the UK’s Party leaders they can trust, or don’t trust anyone to represent the UK on the international stage.
This speaks to a wider crisis of political confidence that the Prime Minister must grapple with in order to remain in Government in four years’ time. Sir Keir Starmer, however, continues to demonstrate a steady hand abroad and has earned recognition for his calm, competent presence on the global stage—qualities that are increasingly resonating with voters seeking reliability in uncertain times.
Nevertheless, these numbers show that success overseas doesn’t automatically translate to trust at home. The Prime Minister must now focus on getting his message across to voters in the UK, and instilling confidence in his domestic economic agenda, as this continues to be essential for unlocking voter support.
Kevin Craig
CEO and Founder
