PLMR Group, with offices across the UK, will be polling the British public in collaboration with Electoral Calculus every quarter from now until the next General Election 2029, providing real-time voting patterns across all UK constituencies.
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46 per cent identify their council correctly
30 per cent don't know their local council
Reform UK change
Tory change
Labour change
Green change
Support falls EoE
Support falls Mids

PLMR’s latest polling points to three strategically significant shifts in the political landscape as voters head to the polls in May.

First, Reform UK’s ceiling is becoming visible. The party leads nationally on 24% but has slipped from its recent peak, now sitting roughly where it was at the start of 2025. The emergence of Restore Britain as a right-wing challenger suggests Reform is beginning to experience the same vote fragmentation Labour has faced on the left. Farage’s strategic problem is now two-sided. Conservative-leaning voters drifting back as Badenoch’s party recovers to 21%, and harder-right voters peeling off to newer insurgents. It points to Farage not being able to secure an outright majority in 2029.

Second, the data exposes how much of Reform’s support is linked to local political disengagement rather than informed endorsement.

Only 46% of voters can correctly identify which party runs their council, with nearly a third saying they simply do not know. Crucially, Reform UK and Conservative supporters are significantly less likely to know who runs their local council than Labour and Green supporters (53% vs 61%).

This is a fragile foundation for Reform to maintain. Support rooted in disengagement is more volatile and less likely to translate reliably into turnout, particularly in local contests where incumbency and delivery normally matter.

And finally, the seat projections point firmly to a hung parliament. Reform is forecast to win 188 seats, down from 335 in January, with the Conservatives on 159 and Labour on just 86. A Reform-Conservative coalition becomes the arithmetically plausible outcome. The Greens on 71 seats illustrate how progressive vote fragmentation is structurally damaging Labour’s seat conversion. For businesses and markets seeking stability, the next election is not likely to yield that as we enter a new era of multi-party politics in the UK.

For the Labour Government, the strategic takeaway is clear. National messaging alone will not close the gap. Labour needs to rebuild the local community connection, demonstrating tangible delivery at council level or risk continued leakage to parties benefiting from voter confusion rather than ideological conviction.

Download the data

46%

of voters can correctly identify their local council party

Reform UK is projected to earn

188

seats with tactical voting

30%

of voters don't know their local council party

Conservatives are projected to earn

159

seats with tactical voting

Labour is projected to earn

86

seats with tactical voting

Greens are projected to earn

71

seats with tactical voting, close behind Labour

Q1: If a general election was called tomorrow, how likely would you be to vote?

“When it comes to pinpointing who voters want making decisions on their behalf, it is clear that Reform UK do not have the trust of the public.

“Reform’s momentum appears to be slowing, which points towards a more competitive environment and the likelihood of a hung parliament. The message right now looking ahead to the General Election is that it is all up for grabs.

“PLMR’s latest polling also highlights a critical challenge ahead of the local elections – many voters simply don’t know who is running their local council. When fewer than half can correctly identify who is in charge, it becomes much harder for parties to rely on their local record to win support.

“For the Government, the priority now is to rebuild that connection with voters, showing clearly how decisions taken nationally and locally are making a difference to people’s everyday lives. Demonstrating progress on the issues that matter most will be key to winning back support in what is becoming an increasingly competitive political landscape.”

Kevin Craig, CEO & Founder of PLMR

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