The big national picture shows an unprecedented three-way tie at the top of British politics, something seldom seen in a system traditionally dominated by two major, established parties.
But dig deeper, and it becomes apparent how and why we have landed in this position.
Labour is shedding seats in its traditional working-class heartlands to Reform UK. Heavily Brexit-voting areas that are more socially conservative find Nigel Farage’s rhetoric of strict controls on immigration appealing. In many northern towns and cities, voters may struggle to support the Tory brand, even if they agree with some of its policies. Reform’s anti-establishment rhetoric and lack of political baggage give it the opportunity to reach new audiences previously unseen.
Head further north into Scotland, and we see more pressure on Labour, this time from a revived SNP. Despite the party’s difficulties in the post-Sturgeon era, voters appear willing to give it another chance in the context of a Westminster Labour government. This poll shows vast swathes of Scottish seats flipping from Labour to the SNP, representing a near wipeout for Labour in Scotland.
The Labour leadership will need to address this challenge urgently if they stand a chance of winning in 2029.
It’s a similar story in Wales, but this time with Reform displacing Labour in dozens of Welsh seats. The upcoming local and Senedd elections in Wales over the next couple of years will provide an indication of how strong support is for Farage’s party when it comes to the crunch. Regardless, it makes for grim reading for the government.
With Labour being squeezed in Scotland, Wales, and the North of England, you’d think the Tories would be optimistic about their prospects of forming the next government. Yet Kemi Badenoch’s party struggles to build on its dismal showing in the 2024 General Election. Traditional Tory voters are instead turning towards Reform to express their dismay at the Labour government, while some affluent Tory seats in the South of England are switching to the Lib Dems – a lingering consequence of the Brexit years, perhaps?
So, is there any good news for the two mainstream parties?
Not really. Perhaps the optimists in Number 10 and CCHQ will point out that there is still a long time until the next General Election. They are right, of course, but they have a huge amount of ground to make up – a daunting task for an establishment party facing both a resurgent start-up party and rejuvenated Scottish nationalists.
Respondents to the poll were also asked whether they feel their personal finances will be better or worse over the coming year. Voters in every single constituency said they are more likely to see their finances worsen. For Starmer, this represents a glimmer of hope that economic growth may translate into growth in the polls – but at present, both prospects seem a long way off.
Reform UK narrowly leading at
24%
SNP could flip
25 seats
from Labour
Labour's Welsh seat share could plummet to
15%
in 2029
Half of voters
believe their finances will worsen next year
70%
of Reform UK and Conservative voters believe finances will worsen
22%
of Bristol Central voters think their finances will get better
Q1: If a general election was called tomorrow, how likely would you be to vote?
Q2: If a general election was called tomorrow, how would you vote?
Q3: Do you think your personal finances will get better or worse over the coming year compared with last year?
Of course, there is a long, long way to go until the next election. History is littered with British Governments who were unpopular in the initial years and who then turned it around. Labour knows very well what it needs to deliver in order to win again.
This poll shows multiple challenges for the two established parties as Reform UK continues to show momentum and is picking up support from disillusioned Labour and Conservative voters in economically struggling areas.
A three-way split of the vote is practically unheard of in British politics and points to shifts in the political make-up of the United Kingdom. The Conservative Party will be particularly concerned that they are not able to move ahead of Labour in the polls as the official Opposition.
If the Labour Government succeeds in its mission to grow the economy and inject optimism into the economic fortunes of households, I have no doubt they can turn things around – especially if the vote on the right remains so divided.
Kevin Craig
CEO and Founder
