PLMR has conducted the first major MRP since Starmer's resignation and it shows Labour re-emerging as the largest projected party on 217 seats despite sitting level with Reform UK on 22% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 20%.
Despite the change in leader, the poll still points to a multi-party scenario with no party reaching the threshold to govern alone.
The sharper story sits on the right. Reform has fallen from 31% in PLMR’s January poll to 22%, dropping to third on 127 projected seats as the Conservatives reclaim second place with 151. Two forces explain the slide. Firstly, the emergence of Restore Britain, which is drawing directly from Reform’s base, and continued scrutiny of Farage’s financial declarations through standards investigations.
The poll also finds limited appetite for churn at the top, with 71% of voters saying frequent changes of Prime Minister are bad for the country. Reform voters are the most relaxed about it, though even there only 11% call it a good thing.
PLMR has identified three trends that stand out. First, seat-vote decoupling: FPTP is now punishing the fragmented right the way it punished the divided left in the 1980s. Reform matches Labour on vote share but trails by 90 seats because its support is geographically even and newly split, with tactical voting compounding the damage. Second, leadership bounces are real but perishable. Burnham’s premium reflects novelty and contrast, and the durability test arrives when he owns delivery rather than promise. Third, the stability finding cuts against the insurgent playbook. An electorate that is volatile in its voting but conservative in its appetite for turmoil rewards parties that look like governments, which favours Labour and a recovering Conservative party over a Reform proposition built on disruption.
On these numbers the next election is decided less by ideology than by which party converts competence claims into seats in a five-party system where 22% can make you the largest party.
With a vote share of
22%
Labour draws level with Reform
9
point
drop for Reform amid Labour bounce and fractured right-wing
Labour projected to remain largest party with
217
seats
Labour, Lib Dem and Green coalition still miss a majority by
7
seats
Conservatives reclaim second place, projected
151
seats with tactical voting
71%
say frequent changes of PM are bad for Britain
Q1: If a general election was called tomorrow, how likely would you be to vote?
Q2: If a general election was called tomorrow, how would you vote?
Q3. Do you think it is a good or bad idea to change Prime Ministers frequently?
“These figures suggest Labour has regained momentum at a pivotal moment for both the Labour Party and the country. Keir Starmer deserves huge credit for restoring Labour’s credibility, for a historic 2024 General Election victory and for how he has stabilised the country and led it through two very challenging years. His legacy is one of stability and a return to serious government.
“Looking ahead, Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster does appear to have given Labour fresh energy, but our polling also sends a broader message. Voters have little appetite for another period of political turbulence. Britain faces major economic and international challenges, and people want to see politicians rally behind stable leadership and focus on delivering for the country.
“While another hung Parliament remains the most likely outcome on these figures, the next General Election is still very much up for grabs. Andy Burnham has clearly given Labour fresh momentum, but the challenge now is to translate that optimism into tangible progress. The party that can turn a compelling vision into real delivery will be best placed to earn the public’s trust. The challenge for Labour’s next Leader will be to bring the Labour Party back anywhere near to the landslide win that Starmer delivered.”
Kevin Craig, CEO & Founder of PLMR
