Almost one year on from the General Election, PLMR’s latest MRP polling with Electoral Calculus suggests a remarkable shift in political momentum, with Reform UK currently leading the national vote share on 31%. Labour follows on 22%, and the Conservatives on 19%, as the traditional party hierarchy is shaken by an increasingly fluid political landscape.
If these numbers were reflected in a General Election tomorrow, Reform would be on course for a Parliamentary majority for the first time, with a projected 377 seats. The Conservatives would fall to just 29, while Labour would hold 118—a sharp drop from the 412 seats it won in 2024.
These figures highlight the extent to which issue-based voting is displacing long-held party loyalties, particularly in post-industrial, coastal and suburban constituencies. Among Reform supporters, immigration is the defining issue, with 83% citing it as a top concern, while for the wider electorate, the economy and cost of living dominate, with 54% naming it as their top priority.
At the same time, the polling underscores how Labour retains a strong foundation, especially among voters who are economically anxious but socially moderate. The party is still in a competitive position and, crucially, has time to recalibrate its message, build trust, and win back disillusioned voters before the country goes to the polls. With the NHS, immigration and the economy emerging as decisive issues, Labour has the time and space to rebuild voter confidence where it matters most.
It’s also worth noting that Reform has yet to be tested nationally in government or opposition. With the party now holding council seats for the first time, by the time the next General Election arrives, they will have a record to defend. Whether this untested movement can live up to voter expectations under sustained scrutiny remains to be seen—and could be a defining factor in whether their current momentum holds.
Notably, the Scottish picture departs sharply from the UK trend. Reform is polling at 14% in Scotland but isn’t projected to win any seats, reflecting the fact that only 28% of Scottish voters cite immigration as a top concern, compared to 38% across the UK. Instead, the political battle in Scotland remains a close contest between the SNP and Labour, shaped more by local priorities than national realignment.
Overall, the results point to a political environment that is highly dynamic but far from settled. With years to go before a General Election is called, parties that focus on economic reassurance, local credibility and message discipline will be best placed to gain ground—and to shape what is looking to be one of the most unpredictable elections in recent memory.
54%
of the population cite the economy as a top concern
Reform UK is projected to earn
377
seats
Immigration is a top concern for
83%
of Reform UK voters
31%
Reform UK vote share
22%
Labour vote share
19%
Conservative vote share
Q1: If a general election was called tomorrow, how likely would you be to vote?
Q2: If a general election was called tomorrow, how would you vote?
Q3: What are the most important issues that will influence how you vote in the next General Election?
We are starting to see economic conditions stabilise after a chaotic few years under the Conservatives, on immigration, enforced returns are up 24 per cent to over 4,300 since July and NHS waiting times have hit a two-year low.
Reform will have a record on bins and potholes in local government to defend over the coming years, so what Reform in power looks like will no longer be an abstract concept. When it comes to crunch time for voters, they’ll want a serious, experienced government that’s proven it can handle the issues that matter to people’s lives.
Kevin Craig
CEO and Founder
