Labour’s commanding 2024 victory has swiftly morphed into a precarious incumbency, as fresh PLMR-Electoral Calculus polling reveals Reform surging past Labour across every UK region. The party’s long-term “missions” strategy, predicated on winning a second term, faces a serious test. With voters citing the cost of living and immigration as primary concerns, and leads in no region of the UK, Labour is reassessing whether delivery over time will be enough to reassemble its fragile 2024 coalition.
The economy continues to be the issue that motivates voters the most, and the Comprehensive Spending Review has not reinvigorated their ardour for Keir Starmer’s Labour. Were this poll translated into an election result, it would be an absolute disaster for the government, the worst since 1918, and the losses among the cabinet would be unprecedented. However, this is not the result, it is a snapshot of where we are now, and an important opportunity for reflection. With several years remaining until the next general election, Labour have an opportunity to turn this around, and as Reform’s polling remains strong, plenty of impetus to do so.
Labour is no longer the most popular party in any region of the UK, one percent behind Reform in Wales and four points behind in London. Both regions have elections in May 2026, which will show us the extent to which Reform can translate good polling into votes and seats, something the local election in 2025 showed they could do, but this time with greater scrutiny, and in less traditionally friendly areas.
Across the country, the cost of living is the single most important issue for voters, and Labour is hoping that the ‘Kickstart economic growth’ mission will coalesce those voters in their favour. This prominence is consistent with polling during the general election, and the strategy Labour pursued. This does nothing to undermine the plan for the 2029 General Election, which for Labour is still predicated on the plan that voters should feel richer than they did in 2024.
The second of Labour’s missions, ‘Make Britain a clean energy superpower’, is important to Labour voters and valuable in retaining them but has little appeal to the key demographic of Reform voters Labour needs to regain. ‘Take back our streets’, mission three, is important to all voters, but cuts to Home Office budgets in the CSR, and the failure to recruit the 13,000 promised new police officers risks undermining Labour’s support there.
Immigration, unsurprisingly, is the biggest issue for Reform voters, and Labour will continue to try to win back some of these voters with announcements and visuals, but always at the risk of alienating some still voting Labour. Mission five, ‘Build an NHS fit for the future’, has probably seen the most success of any mission, and 39% of Reform voters are strongly influenced by their concern for the NHS. Labour found attacks on Nigel Farage and his plans for the NHS very effective at bringing past Labour voters back during the Runcorn by-election, so we should expect to continue to see this tactic.
International instability has presented a challenge to growth, added pressure to defence budgets, and caused division in the UK. The Prime Minister’s handling of the American President has looked successful but has not saved the UK from tariffs or prevented US armed forces from striking Iran. Support for Ukraine has bolstered Starmer’s image internationally, but is not translating into domestic credit and highlights the difference in his approach to the Israel-Gaza war.
Labour has approached government with the assumption it could rely on a second term in power. As it stands, decade-long missions appear overly hopeful, and real delivery and change in this parliament will be needed to bring back the voters Labour is losing. The broad but shallow electoral coalition Labour relied on in 2024 has splintered, and without a mission or purpose, Labour risks being unable to reunite it. Getting rid of the Tories may have done it in 2024, but as they fall further backwards, the risk of Prime Minister Nigel Farage appears to be a gamble more are willing to take.
