The situation facing the Conservative Party is stark. A year on the from the 2024 General Election, PLMR’s latest Road to 2029 polling (in partnership Electoral Calculus) puts Badenoch’s party on just 19% and holding 29 seats against a surging Reform UK on 31% and winning 377 seats.
Badenoch isn’t the only one feeling the impact of Farage. Polling for Labour is catastrophic, being reduced to 118 seats on a vote share of 22% – but for the Conservative Party it is existential. As our polling shows, of those who voted Conservative in 2024, only 67% said they would do the same next time around, with over a quarter (27%) shifting towards Reform UK.
The positive news for the Conservatives is that the UK is, extremely likely, four years away from the next General Election. Plenty of time to build a policy platform that repositions the party, rebuilds trust, and presents a retail offer that attracts voters back to the fold.
Where, though, should the party look to focus its efforts?
This question should be front-and-centre of the Policy Renewal Programme that has been kicked off by Badenoch. In recent years, the Conservatives have benefited electorally from maintaining the support of the ‘grey’ vote – older working voters and those into their retirement. These are cohorts who, typically, tend to turn out to vote in greater numbers and, as such, the Party has been careful to ensure a policy platform that appeases them (think the pension triple-lock).
Our latest polling shows Reform UK eating up this traditional Conservative demographic – questioning whether this route to electoral success for the Party can be relied on anymore. Among those aged 65+, voters split 26% / 42% along Conservative / Reform lines. For those aged 55-64 it is 21% / 39% and for those aged 45-54 it is 16% / 32%. These will be alarming figures for those working in CCHQ.
Come the next election, Labour will be judged by the electorate on whether it has delivered or not; on whether the ‘missions’ and ‘milestones’ have been achieved.
With the cost of living (57% among 18-24 year olds & 60% among 25-34 year olds); NHS waiting times (45% among 18-24 year olds & 43% among 25-34 year olds); and housing affordability and home ownership (23% among 18-24 year olds & 21% among 25-34 year olds) ranking among the key issues affecting the voting intentions of younger demographics, the Conservatives will need to compete on these bread-and-butter domestic policy areas to mitigate the impact of ceded votes to Reform UK.
Rather than seeking to ‘out-Reform’ Reform UK, our latest polling provides a strong argument for the Conservatives to refocus efforts on younger voters along the Road to 2029 – doing so could be their route back.
