Starmer’s Strategic Challenges 

Ben Farmer

Senior Account Manager

It’s easy, and indeed necessary to jump from crisis to crisis – statements must be given and decisions made. However, the bigger picture must not be lost and heading into 2025 Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer faces several strategic challenges to tackle. Making progress across these areas is vital to ensure Starmer can keep in control through what is set to be a very difficult first year.

The economic picture 

The Spending Review is the largest and most important fiscal event of the remaining parliament. Setting the spending envelopes for several years, the review will make clear to each Department the resources they will be dealing with. This will be a challenge for the Government. It will mean tough choices to cut back across many areas amidst the tight grip on spending by the Treasury.

Starmer will face challenges from many Secretaries of State aghast at the levels of cuts required and he will be forced to defend them or choose to pick his battles with the Treasury. A No 10 operation which has been lacking in firepower could come under pressure given until now, party management has been fairly plain sailing. No 10 has been bolstered on business engagement with new hires including James Carroll, Special Adviser for Partnerships, brought on to help repair relations following the budget.

The team has also been boosted by new director of the N10 Policy Unit Olaf Henricson-Bell who will work alongside ex-Labour Policy Director Stuart Ingham. Twin brother of new Labour MP Torsten Bell, Henricson-Bell is ex-Press Secretary to the Treasury and has also held several roles in the Foreign Office, bringing years of Government experience to the No 10 operation. Additional hires into No 10 on the economic side could come soon, helping to support Starmer, who is far more confident on nuts and bolts policy like his old crime beat, or even international relations than domestic economic policy. This will be crucial in the upcoming Spending Review discussions between No 10 and Chancellor Rachel Reeves in No 11 where the needs of balancing the books comes up against Starmer’s wider missions and milestones. The continued external pressure on Rachel Reeves may strengthen Starmer’s hand in these negotiations.

The external economic situation will also have an impact including the potential global tariff challenges arising from President Trump, ongoing war in Ukraine and political instability in Europe. These issues contribute to the mounting economic challenges facing Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer, which could cause further headaches at the Spending Review with the potential for larger departmental cuts than the ones already expected.

Delivery

Policy delivery now has a ‘North Star’ in the Plan for Change published in December 2024, with the No 10 Mission Delivery Unit up and running to co-ordinate activity on the milestones across Whitehall. Starmer continues to personally taking an interest in Mission delivery updates including in-depth meetings with specific Departments and Mission Boards.

Starmer’s strategy for No 10 is based on his strategy when he became Labour Leader and its overseen by the same man, now chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney. Alongside this, the new reformed leadership following the departure of Sue Gray appears to be working well. The plan is to set a long term strategic goal and set out a clear direction of travel. Starmer is often described as a technocratic; I’d argue he harks back to his lawyerly routes and is simply methodical, exhausting each avenue in order.

Running the Labour Party, Starmer spent much of the first two years addressing issues within the party itself, including vital work on tackling antisemitism and improving party election machinery. It was only in the final run up to the election that Starmer focused more externally and on setting out his stall.

Starmer is taking a similar approach to government. Fixing things and working internally and then looking outside and demonstrating the change that has been made. The challenge he faces is delivering that change in the difficult economic and political climate, lurching from crisis to crisis. The UK is of course a different beast to the Labour Party and the relentless focus prevents Starmer and his team from ‘getting under the bonnet’ and fixing the country in the same way that they changed the Labour Party.

After the difficult first few months of governing in 2024, 2025 is there year where delivery starts to become a reality with the increased minimum wages, new breakfast clubs and improvements to NHS waiting lists all coming into effect over the next few months. This could be followed later in 2025 by the changes to renting outlined in the Renters’ Rights Bill and activity to unlock ‘Great British Energy.’

Messaging 

The final challenge lies in messaging. Labour know they need to not only deliver but demonstrate their changes and tell voters what has tangibly changed. As the Guardian’s Polly Toynbee points out, these changes will begin to deliver on Labour’s manifesto but voters will not make the connections unless there is clear communication.

This is a challenge under the new six milestones unveiled in the plan for change as even if those millstones are achieved – voters may not notice.

Of course people will spot if the country gets noticeably better – particularly on NHS waiting lists and on more practical measures like repairing potholes. The No 10 operation is keenly aware of how highly these issues rank in the minds of voters. However, Labour will need to build in clear messaging to link changes back to the Labour Government.

This would be easier if there was a central vision or foundation about what life could be like under Labour. But instead of a vision which could be something like ‘building better futures,’ the Government remains focused on ‘change’. People voted for change in July – now they need to know what’s changing and how it’s changed.

There is also the challenge that things make change for the better but people will not notice the difference. For Labour to succeed, there most be perceptions from the public that they actually feel better off and that the feel immigration is being better managed.  Without effective messaging to demonstrate the changes alongside delivery, Labour will struggle to demonstrate the change they have promised.

 

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