In what seems like a never-ending list of bids for growth, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have thrown their weight behind two ambitions that are seemingly in juxtaposition to the green agenda.
The first, a third runway at Heathrow, is the most obvious. But there is a second ever greater threat: Starmer’s ambition to position the UK as ‘the’ world leader in AI. Central to this vision is a plan to increase the nation’s AI computing power 20-fold by 2030.
If that 2030 deadline sounds familiar, it should. This is the same government that has pledged to deliver a fully clean power system by the very same year, teeing up a potential clash between its AI ambitions and its commitment to green energy.
Starmer’s Dream = Miliband’s Nightmare
If AI is to be “mainlined into the veins” of the nation, as Starmer’s Government envisions, then Britain will need to build and operate far more data centres. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Prime Minister’s AI dream could quickly become the nightmare of Energy Secretary Ed Miliband.
The energy-intensive data centres required to power the UK’s AI revolution risk overwhelming the grid, driving up demand just as Miliband races to deliver a clean power system by 2030. Goldman Sachs estimates that the energy demand from data centres will rise by 160% by 2030. Yet, there’s little clarity on when (or how) the necessary infrastructure will be built to support this surge in demand.
Adding to the uncertainty, the body responsible for mapping out the UK’s 2030 clean power transition has not confirmed whether the government’s ambitious 20-fold AI expansion was even accounted for in its initial clean power projections.
When considered alongside recent forecasts indicating that the government is already on track to miss its 2030 green energy target by 32GW – a shortfall equivalent to powering tens of millions of homes – it becomes clear that Labour’s clean power mission won’t be a simple one.
A Blast From The Past
Beyond managing the massive surge in energy demand, the intermittency of renewables present another major challenge. Unlike AI, which runs 24/7, solar and wind power are at the mercy of the elements. Energy storage solutions could help, but scaling them up to meet AI’s energy demands would require an unprecedented infrastructure blitz. The far likelier scenario? A growing reliance on gas.
Under the current definition of ‘clean power’, natural gas is permitted as a backup to accommodate for natural fluctuations in renewable output. But with AI-driven energy demand set to skyrocket, the UK will face increasing pressure for dispatchable generation. It looks like gas may transition from a supporting role to the star of the show.
However, some in the tech industry are already looking beyond gas. Nuclear could begin to play a bigger role, with Microsoft signing a nuclear power deal to revive Pennsylvania’s Three Mile Island plant to help feed its AI-driven energy needs. At the same time, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are gaining momentum as a power source for data centres. Unlike traditional nuclear plants, SMRs are faster and cheaper to build, and with AI pushing power demands to unprecedented levels, many see nuclear as the inevitable long-term answer.
The Pylon Predicament
And then there’s the issue of infrastructure. Even before this AI announcement, the National Grid chief executive warned that Britain must build five times as many electricity pylons and underground cables in the next five years as it has managed in the past thirty. The AI rollout only compounds this pressure, piling fresh demands onto an already overstretched system.
More Planes, More Problems
The Heathrow expansion only complicates matters further. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has now backed the hotly contested third runway, arguing it will “make Britain the world’s best-connected place to do business” and create up to 100,000 jobs. Yet, despite her insistence that the Cabinet is ‘united’ in its support, the decision is already sowing divisions.
Ed Miliband, who once threatened to resign from Gordon Brown’s cabinet in 2009 over the same expansion plans, now insists – with all the enthusiasm of a hostage video – that Labour can still meet both its growth and net-zero commitments together. But not everyone is convinced.
London Mayor Sadiq Khan has long opposed the third runway and has since vowed to block the expansion “with any tool in the toolkit.” Meanwhile, West London Labour MPs, including Ruth Cadbury, Chair of the Transport Select Committee, have reiterated their fierce opposition to the plan.
Decisions, Decisions
Ultimately, while the Labour’s AI ambitions and plans for Heathrow may promise economic growth, they come at a steep cost to its clean energy goals and climate commitments. The incompatibility between these two objectives raises the question: what can be done?
Perhaps Starmer should consult Parlex, its shiny new in-house AI tool – dubbed the ‘parliamentary vibe-checker’ in Whitehall. Designed to gauge the popularity of policies among MPs, maybe only Parlex can determine which failure would be more politically damaging for this government: falling short of its climate targets, or missing out on the AI boom and risking the UK being left behind in what Tony Blair has described as a coming revolution?
Whatever government insiders think of Blair, it is undeniable that his voice carries weight, and his warning about the transformative power of AI is unlikely to go unheard in Downing Street. The real question is whether Starmer will take it seriously – and whether the tension between his AI ambitions, Heathrow expansion, and clean energy commitments will leave his Government caught between a rock and a hard place.