On day three of Tory Party Conference in Birmingham, one of the elevators in the ICC broke down, leaving four delegates stranded between floors in the venue, and no-doubt missing out on the many bits of Tudgend-tat which were being given out by his entourage. Yet, life at Conference went on as normal.
There are a few analogies in this unfortunate incident. The first is that the four stranded delegates represent the four candidates vying for the leadership of the Party at this Conference. They are trapped in Birmingham, speaking to and about each other in the strange bubble that is Party Conference, each annoying the others to greater and greater extents; but realising that they must all retain a show-politeness that acknowledges that they are trapped here together.
This Conference was all about the leadership race. Despite the one-day drop-in from Rishi Sunak, the only other attraction was Liz Truss, who did for conference what she did for the country – rushed in, made a lot of noise and was ushered back out again abruptly.
At the start of Conference, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenock were far out favourites to get to the last two (with the Conservative Party membership deciding of the final pair). But their contributions at Conference have come at a cost, with both feeling the pressure after making unforced errors – Kemi in picking a fight with every mother in the country, as well as 50,000 civil servants; and Robert making seemingly unfounded claims about the activities of UK special forces in battle.
James Cleverly began Conference as a 10/1 outsider, and now sits as second favourite, at around 2/1 in the betting markets. This was a great Conference for him – described by some as a submarine mission, where he dived below the surface, and made the alliances and coalitions needed to get to the final two. His Conference speech too was hailed a success.
Tom Tugendhat came into and left Conference as the underdog. Despite strong performances, principled positions and the distribution of more merchandise than Conference could seemingly manage, he probably remains in last place and will be eliminated at the next vote of Tory MPs.
The other analogy is that those four trapped delegates represent the Tory party with the rest of the country. Whilst the Party speaks to itself, the rest of the country gets on with getting on.
During conference, Ipsos MORI produced a poll that suggested that two-thirds of the general public do not care who becomes the leader of the Conservative Party. Like those people walking past the trapped elevator, the most that can be hoped from the general public is a polite and sympathetic smile; but few can – or want to – help.
However, for those Conservative Party members at Conference, it was a strangely buoyant time. Labour are plummeting in the polls; Sir Keir Starmer is now more unpopular than Rishi Sunak; and the Government is facing the myriad challenges that come with governing.
Conservative Party members had a deluded sense of optimism that stems from this schadenfreude; but without having agreed on a path to reflecting, refreshing and renewing their own party, and certainly yet without a plan for how to shape opposition and their core policy platform for the next 4 years, that optimism is – as yet – misplaced.
By November 2nd, the Party will have selected its new leader, the great glass elevator will have opened up, and the new Tory leader and their Party will emerge into the sunlight, blinking at the state of the nation under a Labour Government, and will have to work out how to shape their offer to the public until the General Election.
Until then, we will all walk past the closed elevator, as they await the repairman.
