As Parliament returned after its summer break, it might be fair to assume that our new Prime Minister is looking back wistfully over a summer in which he had a far longer honeymoon period than many of his predecessors.
Team Burnham would argue that this wasn’t luck – it’s what happens when a PM with politics, a clear narrative and a plan for what he wants to do combines with agile and smart comms. However, No 10 was soon reminded that the best-laid plans will always find their match in the events that aren’t on the No 10 grid but spring up from all corners, and can waylay even the savviest of political communicators.
Keir Starmer’s timing in announcing he is stepping down as an MP, just before the PM’s first Commons statement, is undoubtedly a headache the party doesn’t need. More significant, however, was the news that gilt yields surged to the highest levels since 1998, adding considerable pressure to the Government’s borrowing costs. This further exacerbates the tough choices ahead for the Government as they navigate limited fiscal headroom alongside a number of spending commitments, significantly the pledge to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP before 2030.
None of this is an ideal background for a PM who wants to project hope of brighter days ahead nor whose instincts are to want to use the state and its resource to support people currently struggling with a cost-of-living crisis that seems never-ending. Nor does it make building business confidence easy – with even the PM’s previous adviser Jim O Neill sounding alarm bells from the business community on what might be announced in the October 28th budget.
For now, the good news for the PM is that he does have the Parliamentary Labour Party onside. Having tired of the Starmer and Reeves narrative of perceived doom and gloom, they see in Burnham’s new government and style of leadership an opportunity to show the public what a Labour government can actually do. Talk of greater public control of key services, social care reform, measures to help people with the cost of living and most significantly further devolution, all grounded in traditional Labour language, will warm the hearts of many Labour MPs. Burnham is unapologetically political, instinctive and emotional – all of which his predecessor was not. He is of the party and knows its peculiarities and complexities in a way Starmer never did. As someone who worked with the PM for seven years, I know that his natural charm and warmth are huge assets in a political system where relationships and alliances matter hugely.
But none of this means that the new Government has anything other than a challenging time ahead. Aneurin Bevan famously said in his 1949 conference speech that “the language of priorities is the religion of socialism” and those around the PM will be mulling this over in the weeks ahead, especially with an eye on Labour conference and, most significantly, the Government’s first budget next month. How do you calm the financial markets alongside reassuring and supporting a public who are finding day-to-day life incredibly hard? Do you challenge your own party on substantial welfare reform? Can you deliver devolution whilst also ensuring certain places don’t get left behind? And how do you do this whilst also ensuring our interests are robustly defended on the world stage in an age of ongoing war in Europe, an unstable Middle East and a growing and dominant Far East?
The Burnham I know is relentless when it comes to doing what he feels is right but also pragmatic in a way not everyone in Westminster seems to realise.
It will be that combination of instinct, determination and balancing the art of the possible that will decide whether the Prime Minister’s honeymoon was a brief summer affair or the genuine reset he so wants to deliver.
