A Race for the Right: The Conservative Leadership Contest

After 14 years in government, the Conservative Party is having to swiftly adapt to their new role as His Majesty’s Official Opposition, but the question remains, who will lead them?

Between a looming Autumn Budget and a fierce election across the pond, the Conservative leadership race has managed to maintain a steady position in the headlines as the final two candidates, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, prepare to go head-to-head in a vote of the Conservative Party faithful. The result is due to be announced on the 2nd November and – whoever the winner is – the outcome will have serious implications on British politics for at least the next five years.

 

Comparing the Candidates

Robert Jenrick, who was once dubbed “Robert Generic” for representing a flavourless brand of centrist Conservatism, has since taken to the political right on key policy issues such as immigration. Just last year, Jenrick served as Immigration Minister under Rishi Sunak but stepped down from the role in protest at the lack of action on deportations.

In his campaign for the leadership, Jenrick has pledged to set a cap on legal migration and to detain and remove migrants who enter the country illegally within days to a ‘safe third country’, such as Rwanda. He has also vowed to scrap major pieces of legislation if he were to eventually become Prime Minister, including the Climate Change Act and Equality Act, as well as expressing his desire to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

Kemi Badenoch has taken a less considered approach to policy, instead running a campaign on values and framing her campaign around renewal and telling ‘hard truths’. She is an avid proponent of free markets, free speech and wading into what many would characterise as the “culture wars,” regularly blasting all-things ‘woke’ and attracting controversy for her comments, including those on maternity pay. Perhaps these themes will have greater resonance with the Conservative membership than with the public-at-large.

On the ECHR, Badenoch has taken a milder approach, explaining that she would be willing to withdraw if necessary but believes that wider – and deeper – reform of the British state and the immigration system should be considered in the first instance.

 

Impact on the Future of the Party

Working in Badenoch’s favour, recent research conducted by YouGov shows that Conservative voters now prioritise values over electability. Given the choice between a ‘true Conservative’ and ‘the best candidate to beat Labour’, 62% of the party membership opted for the former.

This short-term approach to the leadership has been criticised by some within the party who are hoping that the leadership contest will restore some much-needed stability; Conservative Peer Baroness Davidson, widely considered to be on the ‘left’ of the party, summed this up when she expressed her feeling that there is a “good chance” we see another leadership election in the next couple of years. Indeed, there is already speculation that former Home Secretary and leadership hopeful James Cleverly – or even former PM Boris Johnson – could be the leader of the party by the time of the next election.

 

Badenoch vs Jenrick: The TV Debate

Although the fight between the two is far from over, Badenoch appeared to have taken the upper hand following the pair’s TV showdown on GB News last week.

Jenrick’s tunnel vision focus on immigration only further contributed to his reputation as a policy ‘one-trick pony’, whilst Badenoch delivered the more resolute and measured performance, despite her reputation for abrasiveness.

This is a stark turn of events from the initial predictions which had pegged Jenrick and Cleverly as the final candidates. However, in light of a failed leadership bid for Cleverly and a stalling campaign for Jenrick, it is likely now, more than ever, that this is Badenoch’s race to lose.

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